Anyone who watched the mp3/Napster/copyright spectacle might wonder what could top that kind of controversy, that David-vs.-Goliath tale of "big, bad record companies trying to stifle little ol' startup Internet companies." I think I see what's coming next: A very possible indie freeze-out. Yep, after all the freedom that the Internet has afforded independent musicians and labels to compete on an even playing field with the behemoths, the price of entry to the next big thing may turn out to be out of reach for those without extremely deep pockets.
Here's what I see coming: Two monster waves–wireless Interenet connectivity and handheld (non-desktop) computers--are ready to crash upon the tech scene simultaneously. No longer will you have to plug in a cable to connect to the 'net. No longer will you need a big, buzzing computer and a huge monitor to be your portal to the 'net. Everything you need for connecting and interacting will fit in your hand (a phone will probably be bundled into it; that’s another story). Think about this: You walk down the street and want to hear your favorite tune, or your favorite album. No problemo: Just use your handheld whatchamacallit and click to what you want, and it downloads for your listening pleasure. A few cents are charged to your credit card (or you pay a subscription fee), and you're grooving to your tunes. Or, if you just want to listen to a radio-like service, that’s available, too; you get to choose the format (from hundreds, if not thousands, of musical genres and styles).
Doesn't seem like a bad thing, right? It's not. But the logistics, equipment, and sheer numbers of humans needed to deliver digital content (audio, video, text) in this way are incredibly expensive. Secure transactions, wireless transmission, music acquisition, accounting, and all the other contributing factors to making wireless Internet work for music transmission add up. Think about what it costs to use a cell phone (about $30 a month for basic service) or wireless Internet ($70 and up), or even to connect to the Internet from home ($19.95 is typical). Wired Internet access is almost invariably the cheapest because it requires the least tricky technology (telephone lines or fiberoptic, but no expensive cell towers).
Is this a conspiracy? No. It's the way the ball bounces in business. But it's going to change the landscape for music distribution once again, the way the emergence of the World Wide Web and then mp3 did. So far, it’s too early to tell how big the "crater" will be when wireless really takes off. And since this means powerful, portable music for cars, phones, handheld PDAs, etc., who’s to say that there won’t be an unforeseen crop of crossover devices (microwave ovens with audio? toasters with streaming audio)? Keep an eye on companies such as AudioBasket and Voquette, newcomers that are making alliances with the biggest, best-fueled (monetarily) content providers on the planet. You can be sure that there are a gaggle of companies like them already brewing their approach, and more waiting in the wings.
If we're lucky, there will be strong outlets for wired and wireless music distribution, coexisting and perhaps even working in a complementary way. If the pendulum swings in favor of wireless, with wired connectivity being merely a "port" of the wireless content to the wired users, then the world will indeed be a cold place for the independents who can't pony up the costs necessary to play this high-cost delivery game.
What do you do as someone who records, if you aren't already working for the big labels? Start figuring out how to (a) market through other wireless or wired means, (b) make alliances for distribution with the content providers, (c) make alliances for distribution with the big music/media companies, (d) make your music available through other means (CD, free Internet sites, etc.), or (e) as many of these as you can wrangle.
Then there's the other alternative: joining up with "super-indies," like today's riffage.com or iuma.com. Sites like these may just be big enough to "run with the big dogs," offering independent musicians access to the wirelessly connected throngs. The promotional budgets (for magazine, TV, and radio ads and concert support) that artists receive from large audio giants such as Sony, Warner Bros., etc., usually don’t exist in the indie world, nor do the cross-marketing (Levi’s or Budweiser supporting a tour, for example). But the musical outlet is there, the way to connect to the listeners.
So, what’s the moral of this story? At least for now, nothing. Your talents at making, mixing, and otherwise preparing sound and music are still going to serve you well. The mp3, QuickTime, and other formats we’re growing comfortable with aren’t going away–not yet, at least. But keep in mind that the overused phrase "We’re living on Internet time" applies to the audio world, too, and that we have to keep up on the multitude of fast-breaking post-vinyl, post-CD, and now post-desktop-computer developments.